Early indications are that UK retailers could be in for a bleak Christmas this year, as sales on the high street slow to a snail's pace.
Figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) put like-for-like growth in sales volumes at just 0.5% in the twelve months to October, and just 3% in total sales growth. In addition the three-month trend rate fell to 1.1% last month from 1.5% in September.
According to the BRC, October started well, especially for clothing and footwear retailers, but trade slowed across the board in the second half, picking up only slightly at the end of the month.
Partly because of rising interest rates and unsteady house prices, people have become wary about making big-ticket purchases and are more cautious about splashing out on non-essential goods.
Kevin Hawkins, BRC chief executive, said: "Consumer concerns over the economy, pensions and housing market have combined with interest rate rises to erase their confidence. Growth is fragile and more vulnerable to economic bad news than it has been for a couple of years."
"However, some of the more downbeat predictions we've seen in the press of late could be premature. October often sees the shopper pause for breath before Christmas trading really starts. It could still go either way."
The figures go against earlier research by the Confederation of British Industry, which pointed to a slight improvement in high street sales in October. 11% of retailers said sales had improved compared with 9% in September.
Official figures also suggest that the picture is brighter. The last installment from the Office of National Statistics indicated that sales were up a mighty 1% on the month in September.
However, researchers at Experian said yesterday that consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in 2004 last month.
Ona regional basis, confidence rose in the West Midlands and stood still in Wales - everywhere else saw a decline.
